Saturday, May 14

The "UKIP Effect" doesn't work!

Now that the dust has begun to settle following last Thursday's general election results, it has become clear that UKIP only had a minimum effect in the outcome of the poll.
The self styled "UKIP effect" which the party hoped would swing certain election results failed to materialise in any of the seats they contested.
On Monday the right wing think tank the Bruges Group, claimed that UKIP and Veritas had swung the vote in 27 seats, preventing the Tories from taking victory in 18 of them.
Both UKIP and Veritas were quick to take a share of the glory in these seats. However they failed to acknowledge that this balance of power was in fact swayed by the entire euro sceptic vote, which includes the British National Party and other extreme right wing groups.
The entries below are the seats where the euro sceptic claim to hold the balance of the vote, which is borne out of the four way split between Con/Lab/LibDem/Minority Parties. Those in bold type are the five constituencies where Veritas stood and are claiming a share of the ‘glory’ alongside UKIP.

  • Basildon (Lab hold) Majority:3142 – UKIP 1,143 BNP 2,055
  • Battersea (Lab hold) Majority: 163 - UKIP: 333 Green: 1735
  • Burton (Lab hold) Majority: 1,421 ­ UKIP plus Veritas: 1,825. (Veritas: 912) BNP: 1840
  • Carshalton & Wallington (LD hold) Majority: 1,068 - UKIP: 1,111
  • Cornwall North (LD hold) Majority: 3,076 - UKIP plus Veritas: 3,387 (Veritas: 324) Mebyon Kernow(greater self governance for Cornwall) 1351
  • Crawley (Lab Hold) Majority 37 - UKIP 935 BNP 1277
  • Dartford (Lab hold) Majority 706 - UKIP: 1,407 Michael Tibby New England Party 1224
  • Eastleigh (LD Hold) Chris Huhne Majority: 568 - UKIP: 1,669
  • Gillingham (Lab hold) Majority 254 - UKIP 1,191
  • Harlow (Lab hold) Majority 97 - UKIP plus Veritas 1922 (Veritas: 941, UKIP 981)
  • Hereford (Lab hold) Majority: 962 - UKIP: 1,030 Green: 1052
  • High Peak (Lab hold) Majority: 735 ­ UKIP 1,106
  • Hove (Lab hold) Majority 420 - UKIP 575 Green: 2575
  • Medway (Lab hold) Majority: 213 - UKIP 1,488
  • Portsmouth North (Lab hold) Majority: 1,139 - UKIP 1,348
  • Romsey (LD hold) Majority 125 ­ UKIP: 1,076
  • Sittingbourne & Sheppey (Lab hold) Majority: 79 - UKIP plus Veritas: 1,118 UKIP: 926, Veritas: 192 Rock n Roll Loony Party: 479
  • Solihull (LD Gain) Majority: 279 - UKIP: 990 BNP: 1752
  • Somerton & Frome (LD hold) Majority: 812 - UKIP plus Veritas: 1,531 UKIP: 1047, Veritas: 484)
  • Staffordshire Moorlands (Lab hold) Majority: 2,438 -­ UKIP: 3,512
  • Stroud (Lab hold) Majority: 350 - UKIP: 1,089 Green: 3056
  • Stourbridge (Lab hold) Majority: 407 - UKIP: 1,087
  • Taunton (LD gain) Majority: 573 ­ UKIP: 1,441
    Thanet South (Lab hold) Majority: 664 - UKIP (Nigel Farage) 2,079 Green 888
  • Torbay (LD hold) Majority: 2,029 - UKIP 3,726
  • Warwick & Leamington (Lab hold) Majority: 306 - UKIP: 921 Green: 1534
  • Watford (Lab hold) Majority: 1,148 - UKIP: 1,292 Green: 1466
  • Westmorland & Lonsdale (LD gain) Majority: 267 - UKIP: 660 Independent (Anthony Kemp): 309

    It can therefore be seen that neither UKIP nor Veritas can claim that it holds the balance of power in all 27 of these seats. Veritas only had any bearing on the outcome in Cornwall North and Burton, but only in conjunction with UKIP. UKIP's effect is only minimal considering they contested 495 seats and lost their deposits in all but 45 of them. In fact it is the Greens that can claim to hold a balance of power in six of the above seats and the BNP in three.
    It seems that any shreds of credibility which Veritas might have had were done away with, by being beaten to fourth place in Sittingbourne and Sheppey by the Rock 'n' Roll Loony Party.

Source: The Bruges Group


Tom said...

I see that after my criticism of the first edition of this posting, you have now corrected the number of UKIP candidates and saved deposits. Thanks for that!

However, I can't help but feel that you are now pulling a fast one regarding your central criticism of the Bruges Group list. The Bruges Groups listed 27 seats in which the number of votes gained by UKIP (or UKIP plus Veritas in some cases) was greater than the number of votes by which the Tory candidate lost the seat. It then concluded (wrongly in my view) that this meant that UKIP and Veritas had cost the Tories 27 seats.

Now the fun part. Your comment on the Bruges Group list is:

"Both UKIP and Veritas were quick to take a share of the glory in these seats. However they failed to acknowledge that this balance of power was in fact swayed by the entire euro sceptic vote, which includes the British National Party and other extreme right wing groups."

You then reproduce the Bruges Group list of voting figures. However, you have added one additional seat to the start of the list they printed:

"* Basildon (Lab hold) Majority:3142 – UKIP 1,143 BNP 2,055"

This didn't appear on the Bruges Group list, and means that your list is actually 28 seats, not 27. And this extra seat that you've added is the only one out of all the list to support your contention - the only one in which the number of UKIP votes is smaller than the majority whereas the UKIP-plus-BNP vote (an odd combination!) would be greater than the majority.

I thought at first what an odd mistake it was for you to add this unconnected seat to the very start of a list which otherwise disproves your point. Then I remember that UKIP Watch is run by the Labour Party and my puzzlement ceased.

Tom said...

Just to confirm what I said in my post above, here is the link to the original press release on the Bruges Group website.

As you can see, their list starts with Battersea. Basildon isn't on their list at all.